February 5, 2010

Is the 2010 Presidential Election a Repeat of the 2007 Parliamentary Election?

Dear readers,
How many difference can you find between the results of the 2007 Parliamentary election and the 1st round of the 2010 Presidential election?

From UkraineWatch

From UkraineWatch


  1. WOW! Identical, right?

  2. Sorry your maps are misleading in that they show the highest vote per region not the percentage of the national vote. They do not take into consideration the population density as a result. For example Donetsk with over 3.5 million constituents represents 10% of the national electorate alone and Zakarpattia has less then 500,000 voters.

    Whilst I did produce the highest vote map you have displayed (Attribution not given) I was reluctant to publish it as it also distorts the vote distribution.

    You are welcomed to copy my maps on the 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2010 elections (Copies available on Wikipedia) These maps who the distribution of each candidate as a percentage of the total national vote. The color sanding for each candidate being consistent to each other.

    What is has shown is that Yanukovych has increased he percentage in Central and Western Ukraine. (See swing charts on my blog)

    To gain a even more detailed insight into the electorate a polling place by polling comparison analysis needs to be made. But as everywhere else in the world only 5% of the electorate changes their overall allegiance.

    The real issue is the system of governance. Ukraine needs to abandon the presidential system and follow in the steps of Estonia and Latvia and adopt a European parliamentary system of governance. Until it can relay the foundation stones and take collective responsibility for its own governance it will falter. A parliamentary system is the best option. The parliament needs to be reformed to ensure it is accountable and representative with principles of equality being the essential guide in determining any representational model and electoral system

    Ideally Ukraine's parliament would consist of a number of local multi member electorate each electorate reflecting the same number of Representatives. (5, 7 or 9) elected by a single transferable proportional representation voting system using the Meek method of counting the vote. Democracy at its best performance.

  3. UKRTODAY has a point about what changes Ukraine must have to boost its political efficiency. Regarding the election maps, I think you both guessed the outcome of the 2010 election correctly. Central and Southern oblast' aka Swing Provinces split their votes between both candidates with a less than 10% gap. The Zakarpatska oblast was a surprise again where Yanukovich and Tymoshenko were very close. UKRTODAY is correct that it seems that winning the densely populated provinces in the East is a key to winning each election. Overall, awesome analytical stuff.